Infinite Jewels Failure Rate

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    Affected Class/Skill/Quest/Festival/Other: All


    Description: Infinite Jewels Failure Rate


    I just bought 15x +30 Infinite jewels and 12 out of 15 failed. Two of those fails dropped. So I ended up with +1 total for 15 jewels that cost 200 diamonds each!


    So I'm wondering if that should even be possible mathematically speaking.


    If you're rate is set anywhere near 50% the odds of getting 12 out of 15 fails seems extremely unlikely.


    So I'm wondering if the rate is actually set incorrectly and just nobody thought to actually check it.


    Maybe it's set to 5% instead of 50%?


    If it's correct, can you at least tell us the odds it's set at to succeed?


    It just doesn't seem like this should be possible.


    I know it's a small sample size but you'd think the rate would be closer to a 75% success rate to insure anyone super unlucky doesn't get nothing for their money.


    At 75% they'd at least get half their jewels to work you'd think.


    Anyways, if it's not a bug or bad setting then can you move this to feedback/suggestions.


    Thanks.


    Server: Ayvenas


    Version: Doesn't say.

    Bakken your table shows the values of the "old" stones (not universal).


    the "new" stones (universal) are used in the video.


    the calculation of the odds is also slightly different: f.e. database shows 20% up, 40% fail but this means for the server: first check: 20% chance for +1 if not then second check: 40% chance for -1 else fail


    so mathematically, the chances that it will drop are a little lower than in the database (instead of 20% -> 16% and instead of 40% -> 32%)


    the table below shows the mathematical values for the new (left) and old (right) stones.


    945fceaaafa500b3930678b65d343473.png


    so you'll need

    Median: 90

    Average: 111


    (if you wanna have some fancy formulas pn me xD)

    to visualize this:


    ?key=ab5854912d6b6b514268ebb7bba8d4c4ff5f3b6b4d6bd1d005a2a0c2116c01e5-aHR0cHM6Ly9pLmEyMDBrLnh5ei9VS01RRy5wbmc%3D

    (sorry Alexderhexer for stealing your depiction :) )



    personally i used over 2k 3,1k stones (holy cow, i should stop that ö.ö) and i needed an average of 93,4 stones for each item (only items counted that were +20 to +23)


    so i would agree with those chances.


    oh and for all crazy guys who got items with the "old" stones to +30:

    Median: 820

    Average: 1200

    Thanks for the clarification! I still have a couple of those cheap old stones around just to save a uni for 21 haha

    Thanks Ainz that explains a lot. I was at 23 going to 24 so just at the 20% level. So 2 ups out of 10 or 3 ups out of 15, exactly what I got. From videos I watched and just logic assumption I thought it had to be near 50% odds at worst. Boy was I wrong. At least I know there's no point buying them now. Didn't think they could be so bad.

    Wait if it's 20% to go up and 16% to go down, does that mean there's only 4% chance to improve? So out of 10, 2 go up, 6.4 no change and 1.6 go down. So out of 100 jewels, 20 go up, 16 go down, 64 no change. So you need 100 jewels to get +4 improvement if you're at 23 to start i mean. That's totally insane.

    I always stop at 24. If you have to spend thousands of dollars or euros just to complete New Pantheon in a free-to-play game, then I will let others do it. As difficult as it is to stat and tier at the same time, it can be done "free", and it can result in improvements similar to plussing. It is why I run a ton of group dailies. I can then get charges and puries with only time invested. Some of us will agree that wasting time is the main reason to play anyway.

    Quote from Domalash

    Wait if it's 20% to go up and 16% to go down, does that mean there's only 4% chance to improve? So out of 10, 2 go up, 6.4 no change and 1.6 go down. So out of 100 jewels, 20 go up, 16 go down, 64 no change. So you need 100 jewels to get +4 improvement if you're at 23 to start i mean. That's totally insane.

    look at the chances of the old stones xD


    and no, its not 100 jewels to get +24, it's ~100 jewels to get +30 (calculating probabilities works a bit differently :) )

    Edited once, last by Ainz ().

    Ok so I did an other try yesterday. Did buy stones for 14 000 dias to try to get my wand to +30. Started at +26 and endend up with +24. so I say DON'T buy them it's a scam item!

    Quote from Shiby

    Ok so I did an other try yesterday. Did buy stones for 14 000 dias to try to get my wand to +30. Started at +26 and endend up with +24. so I say DON'T buy them it's a scam item!

    Well scam i dont think...but i can agree with that failrate is way to high....
    This is why i dont go up that high to begin with....